Weather: Depression could open up Bay waters for even more action

Formation of a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal on Friday and its intensification…

Formation of a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal on Friday and its intensification into a depression could open up the waters for even more activity, with successors materialising within a few days of each other and likely helping the transition into the North-East monsoon regime over Peninsular India.

Updated global model forecasts suggested the Bay waters would remain be in animated state variously until October 27 before taking a pause and resuming, though with less intense activity, from the first week of November. Short-to-medium outlook by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) sees the formation of two weather systems.


The IMD projections indicate that a successor depression, if not a stronger system, may take shape approximately around the same area where Friday’s low=pressure area does, but may a track from the Gulf of Thailand grazing the Myanmar coast before emerging into the North Bay and heading towards the Odisha-West Bengal coasts.

S-W monsoon withdrawal

Around the time this system makes a landfall and spirals its way into East India (by October 18), a third system may form over the Gulf of Thailand and prepare to enter the Bay. The prominent casualty in the wake of this activity would be the withdrawal of the South-West monsoon.

On Thursday evening, the withdrawal remained disrupted over North-West and West India for a third day. There is no signal available yet for the process to resume given the incoming winds from the opposite side.

The IMD has also warned of squally weather developing over the Central Bay and North Andaman Sea with winds speeding to 45-55 km/hr from Friday to Sunday ahead of the low-pressure area forming on Friday.

Landfall along AP-Odisha coasts

The low is forecast to concentrate into the first post-monsoon depression over the Central Bay by Saturday. The IMD expects it to track west-north-westward and cross the North Andhra Pradesh and adjoining South Odisha coast as a depression by Sunday.

Squally weather with wind reaching 45-55 km/hr in speed and gusting to 65 km/hr is also forecast over the West-Central and adjoining North Bay along and off the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts commencing from Saturday night for next two days.